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On Expectation and Prediction of Events
March 19 @ 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM PDTFree
ON EXPECTATION and PREDICTION OF EVENTS
with PROOF THAT LARGE NUMBERS RULE eventually…
Every event, and configuration of events in the Universe is something of an accident arising from RANDOM arrangements, and secondarily, self-organizing complexity can occur.
Biological evolution has selected for increasingly intricate and efficient neuro-processing by which living things can fulfil basic needs required for survival
– self-preservation by avoiding or coping effectively with harmful environment situations
– self-sustenance by finding energy sources (nutrition), water, safe shelter
– propagation of the species by finding mates for bisexual reproduction.
Organisms that are less competent in any of the above are LESS LIKELY to live long. It is evident that animals without abstract, spoken language still respond to their environments intelligently, assessing situations in making choices. Further, animals clearly hold EXPECTATION for certain outcomes based on experiential pattern recognition – in other words, even animals display the ability TO PLAY THE ODDS.
So what would happen if random events repeated indefinitely never came to anything more than a random outcome? What would exist in a treacherously UNPREDICTABLE WORLD?
In other words, what if we lived in a Universe in which EXPECTATION did not exist?
Meaningful, interpretable outcomes from any process would not emerge. There would be no evolution, no PREDICTABLE quantum orbitals in the atom, no certainty nor recognizable uncertainty, and NO SCIENCE WITH SCIENTIFIC INTERPRETATION OF DATA would be possible.
“As fortune would have it”, all of us DO live in a Universe in which we can look for EXPECTATION that most processes generally do have predictable outcomes. We live in a Universe in which the CASINO ALWAYS WINS – in a sense,
WE LIVE IN THE CASINO UNIVERSE.
Probability Theory is an important discipline of mathematics, as well as Decision Theory and Game Theory. Without applied Probability Theory which is inextricably related to Statistics and evaluation of DATA, Science would have rigour limited to verbose, qualitative explanations of “ALTERNATIVE FACTS” and much hand waving.
Consider the simplest model for an experiment: the toss of a fair coin (50% Heads and 50% tails outcome per toss) – the EXPECTATION of outcomes seems obvious. But WHY will the end result PROBABLY approach the intuitive EXPECTED OUTCOME more and more closely as you toss the coin again and again?
In this presentation, we will draw on the work of mathematicians: Jacob Bernoulli, Pafnuty Chebyshev, Andrey Markov, Andrey Kolmogorov, and others to show under what terms we can PROVE that an EVENT REPEATED WILL PROBABLY APPROACH AN EXPECTED VALUE EVENTUALLY without which, Science would make no sense at all.
Robert Hendrix, a.k.a. Tagline
Presentation by Robert A. Hendrix, M.D.
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