Back in 2011 I led a Science Circle discussion on Black Swans (See link below for transcript). I am still fascinated by these phenomena and want to revisit them now after almost 9 years.

Deepy (looking very 2011) at her original Science Circle discussion on Black Swans.

A brief recap: A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we seek explanations so we might prevent or predict future events (Taleb, 2010). A black Swan may have a positive or a negative effect. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so were the terror attacks of 9/11. Specifically however, we see Black Swans as always disruptive and usually negative.

Generally, the literature has focused on the occurrence of Black Swan events in finance and business. Politics and war also have their Black Swans. As do the geological and biological sciences.

I did find several articles in the science area. Anderson et al (2017) looked at Black Swan events in animal populations. They identify many events of rapid species collapse that are Black Swans. Nuñez & Logares (2012) looked at Black Swans in ecology and evolution.

Now not every catastrophe is a Black Swan. There are criteria: Veisdal (2019) says, “For an event to be classified as a black swan event, it must be ex ante computationally inaccessible.” In other words it must be unpredictable.

Hurricanes are, for the most part, predictable and so generally are not Black Swans. At one time a meteor strike on the earth would have been unpredictable but now we have a pretty good handle on the objects in our solar system that may come our way.

“… a black swan is by definition a surprise. Nevertheless, people tend to concoct explanations for them after the fact, which makes them appear more predictable, and less random, than they are. Our minds are designed to retain, for efficient storage, past information that fits into a compressed narrative. This distortion, called the hindsight bias, prevents us from adequately learning from the past” (Taleb, 2004).

The four quadrants. The South-East area (in orange) is where statistics and models fail us. (Taleb, 2008)

Black Swans are associated with probabilities. We are all familiar with the normal distribution. It is that bell shaped curve that shows the distribution of many common variables in any population. For example, the height of humans varies and about 70% of all people’s heights fall within one standard deviation of the mean height of all people. Roughly, 95% fall within two standard deviations and 99% within three. Black Swans are rarer still. They are so unlikely that we would expect them never to happen. The strange thing is they happen more often than probabilities would indicate.

That is what so fascinates me about black Swans. They are those events we never expect, cannot plan for but really think we should do something to prevent. It is this psychological tension that is so frustrating and so human.

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Deepy (Deepthinker Oh) is an educational psychologist with a long standing love of journalism and previous experience as the editor of MANIERA magazine. Deepthinker Oh's use of the SLBN logo does not constitute approval by or a representation or endorsement from Linden Lab.

2 comments on “Black Swans: Swimming Again

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    Syzygy Asymptote says:

    If black swan events occur more frequently than probability predicts, then maybe something is missing from the computation of that probability? I suppose repeated attempts at improving such computations could eventually support or refute such an idea.

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      Deepy says:

      Hi Syzygy. You are correct if all the variables could be identified then probabilities could be improved. Randomness might still render some events unpredictable.

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